Can tourism pressure be predicted with data?

Forecasting models hold great promise when it comes to estimating tourist pressure on destinations. They can help to better estimate where visitor flows (as indicators of tourism pressure) of overnight visitors and day visitors (at national, regional and local level) may generate crowds.

New forecasting model for tourism pressure

Despite this potential, it is a fact that nowadays many studies are limited to mostly ad hoc and descriptive and explanatory research. A predictive model is the next step in the data maturity of the leisure and tourism sector. However, it is still virtually unexplored territory. Together with NBTC, CBS and CELTH, we are trying to take a step in this direction by:

  • exploring what is possible (literature review)
  • conducting three experiments to find out whether, and how, forecasting models can help policy makers.

Collaboration and bundling of knowledge

This project is part of the Data and Development Lab, in which CELTH has joined forces with Statistics Netherlands and NBTC to experiment with data and information for the leisure sector. For this project, we collaborate with the Knowledge Center for Coastal Tourism and there is intensive collaboration with the data experts of DataFryslân and the research group ‘Data Science’ of Hogeschool Zeeland.

Contact Jasper for more information about the unique combination of knowledge about leisure & tourism and the technical knowledge of modeling.

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Jasper is an expert in tourism analytics and data science.